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Topic: Amoeba - Oct. 28, 2009 (Read 125 times) |
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Noble D. Bell
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Amoeba - Oct. 28, 2009
« Thread started on: Oct 28th, 2009, 11:25am » |
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** This should be an interesting problem.
Every generaion of red amoeba has a 5% chance of spawning 5 more red amoeba, a 10% chance of spawning 3 blue amoeba, a 1% chance of doing both, and a 84% chance of not spawning. Every generaion of blue amoeba has a 3% chance of spawning 5 more blue amoeba, a 2% chance of spawning 10 red amoeba, a 1% chance of doing both, and a 94% chance of not spawning.
Your petri dish starts with one red amoeba. Can you write an LB program that will show what is the expected number of red and blue amoeba observed before all amoeba die off? Can you do it graphically too?
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tenochtitlanuk
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Re: Amoeba - Oct. 28, 2009
« Reply #1 on: Oct 28th, 2009, 2:55pm » |
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By 'not spawning' do you mean 'dying'? I suppose that is what you intend by 'each generation'? If not, both grow without limit...
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GaRPMorE
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Re: Amoeba - Oct. 28, 2009
« Reply #2 on: Oct 28th, 2009, 5:27pm » |
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Too many loose ends in this one.
In the first place, amoebae do not produce random quantities of "spawn," but reproduce by binary fission ("another me").
Starting from a single organism, the maximum populations (if all split) would be then 2, 4, 8,... and so on.
But, let us say that we have here some kind of a mutated amoeba, which might divide into either 8, 5, or 3 (or 15, 10 or 5) parts or none at all. Still, since we can expect not less than 6% always to be "spawning," the process would seem to have no end, and there would soon be a surfeit of "idle" amobae, unless those died (which would certainly explain their lack of interest in asexual reproduction). Kind of reminds you of some portions of the human population.
I guess you might say I am having difficulty grasping the concept.
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tenochtitlanuk
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Re: Amoeba - Oct. 28, 2009
« Reply #3 on: Oct 28th, 2009, 6:36pm » |
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As a first try- I hope interpreted correctly... NB it stops at 960 generations, and I've observed at least one last longer... Code:
' Every generation of red amoeba has a 5% chance of spawning 5 more red amoeba,
' a 10% chance of spawning 3 blue amoeba,
' a 1% chance of doing both, and
' a 84% chance of not spawning.
' Every generation of blue amoeba has a 3% chance of spawning 5 more blue amoeba,
' a 2% chance of spawning 10 red amoeba,
' a 1% chance of doing both, and
' a 94% chance of not spawning.
' Your petri dish starts with one red amoeba.
' Can you show what is the expected number of red and blue amoeba observed before all amoeba die off?
' Can you do it graphically too?
' NB I've had an off-scale run of over the 960 generations displayed here.....
nomainwin
WindowWidth =1000
WindowHeight = 550
UpperLeftX =int( ( DisplayWidth -WindowWidth) /2)
UpperLeftY =int( ( DisplayHeight -WindowHeight) /2)
graphicbox #w.g1, 10, 52, 980, 400
textbox #w.tb1, 10, 10, 980, 30
button #w.exit, "Exit", [quit], LR, 30, 10
maxgen =0
maxpop =1
maxpopt =1
open "Red & Blue Amoeba pool" for window as #w
#w, "trapclose [quit]"
#w.g1, "down; fill white; size 1; flush"
#w, "font arial 12"
for i =1 to 100000
#w.g1, "cls ; color blue; line 0 200 960 200"
gen =0
red =1
blue =0
while ((red >0) or (blue >0)) and (gen <960)
r =int( 100 *rnd( 1)) +1
if (r <= 5) then red =red + 5
if (r > 5) and (r <=15) then blue =blue + 3
if (r > 15) and (r <=16) then red =red + 5: blue =blue +3
if (r > 16) and red >0 then red =red -1
r =int( 100 *rnd( 1)) +1
if (r <= 3) then blue =blue + 5
if (r >3) and (r <= 5) then red =red +10
if (r >5) and (r <=6) then blue =blue + 5: red =red +10
if (r >6) and blue >0 then blue =blue -1
gen =gen +1
#w.g1, "color red; line "; gen; " 199 "; gen; " "; 199 - red *2
#w.g1, "color blue; line "; gen; " 201 "; gen; " "; 201 +blue *2
maxpop =max( maxpop, red +blue)
maxgen =max( maxgen, gen)
#w.tb1, "Test #"; right$( " " +str$( i), 6); " reached generation =";_
right$( " " +str$( gen), 6); " before all were dead. Best so far was a run of ";_
right$( " " +str$( maxgen), 6); " & max pop'n was ";_
right$( " " +str$( maxpop), 6)
scan
wend
if maxpop >maxpopt then
maxpopt =maxpop
#w.g1, "getbmp drawing 1 1 719 399"
s$ ="AmoebaPic" +str$( maxpop) +".bmp"
bmpsave "drawing", s$
timer 5000, {MoveOn2]
wait ' allow time to save bmp
[MoveOn2]
timer 0
unloadbmp "drawing"
end if
next i
wait
[quit]
close #w
end
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tenochtitlanuk
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Re: Amoeba - Oct. 28, 2009
« Reply #4 on: Oct 28th, 2009, 7:09pm » |
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Two example runs..
 and
 Note most runs stop much earlier.
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GaRPMorE
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Re: Amoeba - Oct. 28, 2009
« Reply #5 on: Oct 29th, 2009, 2:08pm » |
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I don't know... Seems to me, starting with a single organism, the odds in favor of no production whatsoever are about 5:1. I'm expecting results of Red 1, Blue 0. Where am I thinking wrong?
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Noble D. Bell
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Re: Amoeba - Oct. 28, 2009
« Reply #6 on: Oct 29th, 2009, 2:35pm » |
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Perhaps this little bit might help...
One initial red amoeba will spawn into 1.7354 on average.
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GaRPMorE
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Re: Amoeba - Oct. 28, 2009
« Reply #7 on: Oct 29th, 2009, 4:26pm » |
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Quote:Perhaps this little bit might help... One initial red amoeba will spawn into 1.7354 on average |
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I don't see it. (1.7354)
Say we begin with 100 red amoeba.
We should expect that 5 will spawn 5 reds each (+ 25 red), 10 will spawn 3 blue (+ 30 blue), and 1 will spawn 5 red and 3 blue, for a total of 30 more red and 33 blue, or 63 new amoeba in all. Wouldn't 0.63 then be the average of one red spawning?
Nor am I clear on what happens next. What of the 84 amoeba who did not spawn? Are they now kaput, resulting in a supposedly viable population of 79? And what of the those which did produce spawn. Would they also expire, or do they get to "spawn and spawn again?" If the latter were the case, there would be no end to the process -- a population explosion. Yet of if an amoeba gets but one chance to spawn before it dies, the population shrinks pdq.
When is an amoeba NOT an amoeba?
I'm thinking that my favorite quote (from Albert Einstein)may very well apply here.
What is the maximum number of individual pieces one can carve from a circular pizza, using only straight cuts? Can you write an LB program to illustrate that graphically for any (reasonable) number of knife slices?
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| « Last Edit: Oct 30th, 2009, 6:42pm by GaRPMorE » |
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